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93) We also show how to measure the respective contributions of in-sample bias and overfitting to the overall predictive bias when applying an estimated model to new data.
* Measuring overfitting in nonlinear models: a new method and an application to health expenditures.
- When fitting an econometric model, it is well known that we pick up part of the idiosyncratic characteristics of the data along with the systematic relationship between dependent and explanatory variables. This phenomenon is known as overfitting and generally occurs when a model is excessively complex relative to the amount of data available. Overfitting is a major threat to regression analysis in terms of both inference and prediction. We start by showing that the Copas measure becomes confounded by shrinkage or expansion arising from in-sample bias when applied to the untransformed scale of nonlinear models, which is typically the scale of interest when assessing behaviors or analyzing policies. We then propose a new measure of overfitting that is both expressed on the scale of interest and immune to this problem. We also show how to measure the respective contributions of in-sample bias and overfitting to the overall predictive bias when applying an estimated model to new data. We finally illustrate the properties of our new measure through both a simulation study and a real-data illustration based on inpatient healthcare expenditure data, which shows that the distinctions can be important.
=>新発見の, 新しい, 現代的な, 新参の
Overview of adj new
The adj new has 11 senses (first 5 from tagged texts)
1. (310) new -- (not of long duration; having just (or relatively recently) come into being or been
made or acquired or discovered; "a new law"; "new cars"; "a new comet"; "a new friend"; "a new
year"; "the New World")
2. (36) fresh, new, novel -- (original and of a kind not seen before; "the computer produced a
completely novel proof of a well-known theorem")
3. (11) raw, new -- (lacking training or experience; "the new men were eager to fight"; "raw
recruits")
4. (5) new, unexampled -- (having no previous example or precedent or parallel; "a time of
unexampled prosperity")
5. (3) new -- (other than the former one(s); different; "they now have a new leaders"; "my new car
is four years old but has only 15,000 miles on it"; "ready to take a new direction")
6. new -- (unaffected by use or exposure; "it looks like new")
7. newfangled, new -- ((of a new kind or fashion) gratuitously new; "newfangled ideas"; "she buys
all these new-fangled machines and never uses them")
8. New -- (in use after medieval times; "New Eqyptian was the language of the 18th to 21st
dynasties")
9. Modern, New -- (used of a living language; being the current stage in its development; "Modern
English"; "New Hebrew is Israeli Hebrew")
10. new, young -- ((of crops) harvested at an early stage of development; before complete maturity;
"new potatoes"; "young corn")
11. new -- (unfamiliar; "new experiences"; "experiences new to him"; "errors of someone new to the
job")
Overview of adv new
The adv new has 1 sense (first 1 from tagged texts)
1. (1) newly, freshly, fresh, new -- (very recently; "they are newly married"; "newly raised
objections"; "a newly arranged hairdo"; "grass new washed by the rain"; "a freshly cleaned floor";
"we are fresh out of tomatoes")
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