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return kwic search for provide out of >500 occurrences
325270 occurrences (No.61 in the rank) during 5 years in the PubMed. [cache]

172) Bayesian inference is carried out to provide the probability of being in an epidemic state at any given moment.

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PMID:21873301 DOI:10.1177/0962280211414853

2015 Statistical methods in medical research

* Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks.

- Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epidemic phase. To do so, we propose a hidden Markov model in which the transition between both phases is modelled as a function of the epidemic state of the previous week. Different options for modelling the rates are described, including the option of modelling the mean at each phase as autoregressive processes of order 0, 1 or 2. Bayesian inference is carried out to provide the probability of being in an epidemic state at any given moment. The methodology is applied to various influenza data sets. The results indicate that our methods outperform previous approaches in terms of sensitivity, specificity and timeliness.

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[frequency of next (right) word to provide]

(1)109 a	(12)6 insight	(23)3 care	(34)2 effective
(2)39 an	(13)6 recommendations	(24)3 direct	(35)2 first
(3)32 the	(14)5 reliable	(25)3 guidance	(36)2 for
(4)25 evidence	(15)5 them	(26)3 novel	(37)2 good
(5)14 useful	(16)4 information	(27)3 preliminary	(38)2 greater
(6)13 new	(17)4 insights	(28)2 accurate	(39)2 methodological
(7)8 more	(18)4 such	(29)2 additional	(40)2 one
(8)7 rather	(19)4 us	(30)2 analytical	(41)2 some
(9)7 support	(20)4 valuable	(31)2 answers	(42)2 sufficient
(10)6 further	(21)3 adequate	(32)2 basic	(43)2 to
(11)6 important	(22)3 better	(33)2 clinically

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--- WordNet output for provide --- =>供給する, 与える, 規定する, 条件とする, 準備する, 用意する, 扶養する, 援助する Overview of verb provide The verb provide has 7 senses (first 4 from tagged texts) 1. (270) supply, provide, render, furnish -- (give something useful or necessary to; "We provided the room with an electrical heater") 2. (25) provide, supply, ply, cater -- (give what is desired or needed, especially support, food or sustenance; "The hostess provided lunch for all the guests") 3. (14) provide -- (determine (what is to happen in certain contingencies), especially by including a proviso condition or stipulation; "The will provides that each child should receive half of the money"; "The Constitution provides for the right to free speech") 4. (2) put up, provide, offer -- (mount or put up; "put up a good fight"; "offer resistance") 5. leave, allow for, allow, provide -- (make a possibility or provide opportunity for; permit to be attainable or cause to remain; "This leaves no room for improvement"; "The evidence allows only one conclusion"; "allow for mistakes"; "leave lots of time for the trip"; "This procedure provides for lots of leeway") 6. provide, bring home the bacon -- (supply means of subsistence; earn a living; "He provides for his large family by working three jobs"; "Women nowadays not only take care of the household but also bring home the bacon") 7. provide -- (take measures in preparation for; "provide for the proper care of the passengers on the cruise ship") --- WordNet end ---