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421954 occurrences (No.**40** in the rank) during 5 years in the PubMed. [cache]

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421954 occurrences (No.

27) We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the odds ratio and logit of risk of a Bernoulli process. |

PMID:22025415 DOI:10.1177/0962280211426356 |

2015 Statistical methods in medical research |

* Change point detection in risk adjusted control charts. |

- Precise identification of the time when a change in a clinical process has occurred enables experts to identify a potential special cause more effectively. In this article, we develop change point estimation methods for a clinical dichotomous process in the presence of case mix. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the odds ratio and logit of risk of a Bernoulli process. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted CUSUM and EWMA control charts. In comparison with alternative EWMA and CUSUM estimators, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities enhance when probability quantification, flexibility and generaliability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered. The Deviance Information Criterion, as a model selection criterion in the Bayesian context, is applied to find the best change point model for a given dataset where there is no prior knowledge about the change type in the process. |

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(2)72 factors | (10)7 group | (18)4 stratification | (26)2 mortality |

(3)40 for | (11)6 ratio | (19)4 was | (27)2 perception |

(4)24 factor | (12)5 behavior | (20)3 groups | (28)2 rates |

(5)23 and | (13)5 is | (21)3 infants | (29)2 the |

(6)16 *null* | (14)5 patients | (22)2 among | |

(7)13 assessment | (15)5 to | (23)2 during | |

(8)10 score | (16)4 areas | (24)2 estimators |

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--- **WordNet** output for **risk** ---
=>1.損害の恐れ, 危険, 冒険, リスク, 2.危険にさらす, 3.敢えてする, 被保険者, 被保険物, 危険にさらす,
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Overview of noun risk
The noun risk has 4 senses (first 2 from tagged texts)
1. (4) hazard, jeopardy, peril, risk, endangerment -- (a source of danger; a possibility of
incurring loss or misfortune; "drinking alcohol is a health hazard")
2. (2) risk, peril, danger -- (a venture undertaken without regard to possible loss or injury; "he
saw the rewards but not the risks of crime"; "there was a danger he would do the wrong thing")
3. risk, risk of infection -- (the probability of becoming infected given that exposure to an
infectious agent has occurred)
4. risk, risk of exposure -- (the probability of being exposed to an infectious agent)
Overview of verb risk
The verb risk has 2 senses (first 2 from tagged texts)
1. (8) risk, put on the line, lay on the line -- (expose to a chance of loss or damage; "We risked
losing a lot of money in this venture"; "Why risk your life?"; "She laid her job on the line when
she told the boss that he was wrong")
2. (2) gamble, chance, risk, hazard, take chances, adventure, run a risk, take a chance -- (take a
risk in the hope of a favorable outcome; "When you buy these stocks you are gambling")
--- **WordNet** end ---